The final California Clasico of the 2021 regular season takes place on Friday at Dignity Health Tennis Center as the Los Angeles Galaxy look for a third win this year against the San Jose Earthquakes.
LA missed an opportunity to take over first place in the Western Conference last time out, losing 2-1 to the Colorado Rapids, while the Quakes extended their unbeaten run to nine games with a 1-1 draw at home to Minnesota United.
Match preview
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A few days after what manager Greg Vanney said was possibly their best win of the season, blanking the Loons 1-0, the Galaxy failed to keep that emotional high going on Tuesday.
Despite having more shots on target than in their previous game and having a lot more possession versus the Rapids (65%), Los Angeles could not beat goalkeeper William Yarbrough in the second half, despite creating several quality scoring opportunities.
Even with this defeat, LA still look like a formidable squad, proving that they can compete for the long haul, even without their top goalscoring threat, Chicharito.
It took the Galaxy a good half hour to get into their match on Tuesday, but ultimately it was a set-piece that did them in, as their defence was a little slow off a corner in the 73rd minute and a Cole Bassett flick-on found substitute Andre Shinyashiki for the game-winner.
As deflating as they probably felt losing that match, they should not have any problem getting their energy level back up quickly, as they face their California foes in what has become one of the most intense rivalries in Major League Soccer.
With 35 points after 20 games this year, the Galaxy have shown that they have plenty of character, fighting hard game in and game out, and that character has seen them grow by leaps and bounds from 2020 when they only earned 22 points from 22 matches.
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The Quakes have shown a lot more dedication and commitment to do the little things right over the past couple of months, but it has rarely been enough to earn three points.
On Tuesday, they drew for the seventh time in their last nine games, as Matias Almeyda was forced to make some in-game adjustments when his side were reduced to 10 men, shortly after they had conceded the equalising goal to Minnesota in the opening half.
Four of their draws on their current streak could have easily been victories, with the Goonies positioned to win each of those fixtures but unable to shut down their opponents.
In May and June, it looked like the Quakes were destined to spend the season in the basement of the Western Conference, losing six of seven fixtures, conceding 15 goals, while being shut out five times.
Since that point, they have woken up and competed hard while being a lot more cautious in attack, and while they are continuously earning points, they could be in a much better position.
With their draw to Minnesota, the Quakes are tied with Los Angeles FC and the Portland Timbers for the final playoff spot, but both sides have yet to play this week.
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Team News
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Jonathan Bond returned to start in goal for the Galaxy on Tuesday, replacing Jonathan Klinsmann, who almost single-handedly gave his side a victory last weekend.
Centre-back Derrick Williams notched his third assist in 12 career appearances for LA, Niko Hamalainen played the full 90 minutes after making his debut last weekend and Sega Coulibaly has started in every match this month for LA.
Rayan Raveloson scored his fifth goal of the season, while midfielder Jonathan dos Santos needs just nine more appearances to reach 100 across all competitions for the Galaxy.
Earthquakes forward Chris Wondolowski added another milestone to his illustrious career on Tuesday, becoming the first striker in MLS history to make 400 regular-season appearances.
San Jose will be without Nathan for this one because of a red card suspension, Matt Bersano has a left knee injury, Benji Kikanovic is still questionable with a right thigh injury, Jacob Akanyirige has a left lower leg injury and Tommy Thompson is still nursing a left knee problem.
On Tuesday, Jeremy Ebobisse started as the lone striker as Javier Lopez sat out, Marcos Lopez was preferred to Oswaldo Alanis in central defence and Luciano Abecasis moved back into a defensive role along with Tanner Beason.
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Araujo, DePuy, D. Williams, Fisher; Dos Santos, Raveloson, Lletget; Zubak, Joveljic, Alvarez
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Marie, Alanis, Beason, M. Lopez; Judson, Remedi; Fierro, Yueill; Cowell, Ebobisse
We say: Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes
LA are a resilient bunch who tend to respond well after a defeat, while they have shown that they are a much deeper team than any of us knew.
The Quakes have done a much better job earning points in close games, but at times it looks like they are playing not to lose rather than playing to win as they look very timid going forward.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 57.73%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 20.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
