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Paderborn logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 27
May 23, 2020 at 2.30pm UK
Benteler-Arena
Hoffenheim logo

SC Paderborn
1 - 1
Hoffenheim

Srbeny (9')
Vasiliadis (32'), Gjasula (61'), Srbeny (67')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Skov (4')

Preview: SC Paderborn vs. Hoffenheim - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between SC Paderborn and Hoffenheim, including team news and predicted lineups.

SC Paderborn's search for their first Bundesliga victory since the end of January will continue on Saturday afternoon as they welcome Hoffenheim to Benteler-Arena.

The hosts are currently bottom of Germany's top flight with just 17 points to show from their 26 matches this season, while Hoffenheim occupy ninth, just four points off the top six.


Match preview

Paderborn's Christian Strohdiek pictured in Juoly 2019© Reuters

Paderborn finished second in the 2.Bundesliga last season to earn promotion to the top flight, but it would be fair to say that it has been a struggle for the team during the 2019-20 campaign.

Four wins, five draws and 17 defeats - that is how Paderborn have performed in Germany's top flight this term, leaving them bottom of the table with just 17 points from 26 matches.

Steffen Baumgart's side are six points behind 16th-placed Fortuna Dusseldorf, whom they shared the points with in a goalless draw last weekend, and 10 points off 15th-placed Mainz on the same number of matches.

It is difficult to imagine a scenario where the strugglers escape the relegation zone in the coming weeks, particularly considering that they have only picked up one league victory in 2020.

Hoffenheim manager Alfred Schreuder pictured in July 2019© Reuters

Hoffenheim, meanwhile, currently sit ninth in the table with 35 points to show from their 26 matches. They are four points off sixth-placed Wolfsburg as things stand but will need to improve in the coming weeks if they are to potentially claim a European spot for the 2020-21 season.

Alfred Schreuder's side suffered a 3-0 home defeat to Hertha Berlin on their return to action last weekend, while they conceded six unanswered goals to Bayern Munich just before the league was postponed.

Hoffenheim have not actually been victorious in the Bundesliga since the start of February, losing five of their last seven during an extremely disappointing run of form.

Die Kraichgauer ran out 3-0 winners in the reserve game with Paderborn earlier this season, though, and actually have the seventh-best away record in Germany's top flight during the 2019-20 campaign, picking up more points on their travels (19) than at home (16).

Paderborn Bundesliga form: DLLLLD

Hoffenheim Bundesliga form: LLDLDL


Team News

Hoffenheim's Andrej Kramaric celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on December 20, 2019© Reuters

Paderborn will again be without the services of Luca Kilian due to a thigh problem, but the home side did not pick up any fresh injury concerns against Dusseldorf last weekend.

There are not expected to be many changes from the side that started last time out, although Marlon Ritter could be in contention for a spot in the final third of the field.

Christopher Antwi-Adjei overcame a thigh problem to feature against Dusseldorf, and the 26-year-old is again expected to support Dennis Srbeny in an attacking position.

As for Hoffenheim, Munas Dabbur, Andrej Kramaric, Sargis Adamyan and Ishak Belfodil are all still injured.

Head coach Schreuder is expected to consider changes from the side that started against Hertha, with former Borussia Dortmund attacker Jacob Bruun Larsen among those who could feature from the onset.

However, Ihlas Bebou should keep his spot for the visitors at the top end of the field.

Paderborn possible starting lineup:
Zingerle; Drager, Hunemeier, Schonlau, Collins; Proger, Vasiliadis, Gjasula, Antwi-Adjej, Jastrzembski; Srbeny

Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Kaderabek, Akpoguma, Hubner, Posch; Grillitsch, Rudy; Zuber, Baumgartner, Larsen; Bebou


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Paderborn 0-1 Hoffenheim

Neither side will enter the match in a confident mood, but Hoffenheim's away form this season has actually been quite strong. Paderborn, on the other hand, have the second-worst home record in the division. We are not expecting many goals on Saturday afternoon but expect the visitors to pick up all three points.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 46.63%. A win for SC Paderborn had a probability of 31.31% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.04%) and 0-2 (5.78%). The likeliest SC Paderborn win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.


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