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Championship | Gameweek 45
Apr 26, 2025 at 3pm UK
KCOM Stadium
Derby logo

Hull City
0 - 1
Derby


Jones (83')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Phillips (84')
Langas (25'), Armegang (39')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Hull City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hull City 2-1 Preston
Monday, April 21 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: West Brom 1-3 Derby
Monday, April 21 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Hull City 1-2 Derby County

Derby got back to winning ways at West Brom, and we think that they will secure a big three points in the relegation battle this weekend. Hull have struggled at home throughout the campaign, and they could be involved in a nervy final day at Fratton Park if this result happens. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hull City win with a probability of 48.77%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 25.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hull City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.89%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Hull CityDrawDerby County
48.77% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 25.43% (0.009999999999998 0.01) 25.81% (-0.052 -0.05)
Both teams to score 51.27% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.2% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)51.8% (0.088999999999999 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.43% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)73.56% (0.078000000000003 0.08)
Hull City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.74% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)21.26% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.83% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)54.17% (0.028999999999996 0.03)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.12% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)34.88% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.38% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)71.62% (0.101 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Hull City 48.76%
    Derby County 25.81%
    Draw 25.42%
Hull CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 11.48% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.36% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-0 @ 8.89% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.83% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 4.59% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.55% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.87% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.78% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 0.99% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 48.76%
1-1 @ 12.09% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.41% (0.026 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.93% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 25.42%
0-1 @ 7.81% (0.008 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.37% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.11% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.24% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.73% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.44% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.11%
Total : 25.81%

How you voted: Hull City vs Derby

Hull City
41.7%
Draw
18.8%
Derby County
39.6%
48
Head to Head
Oct 26, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 12
Derby
1-1
Hull City
Brown (66')
Forsyth (90+4')
Simons (57')
Simons (72'), Hughes (77'), Burstow (90+1'), Pedro (90+6')
Feb 8, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 31
Derby
3-1
Hull City
Forsyth (19'), Lawrence (38'), Ebosele (47')
Bielik (53'), Bird (90+4')
Forsyth (65' og.)
Docherty (17'), Greaves (21'), Honeyman (89')
Aug 18, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Hull City
0-1
Derby

Jones (71')
Baldock (57')
Morrison (79'), Roos (90+1'), Stretton (90+2')
Jan 18, 2020 3pm
Oct 26, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 14
Hull City
2-0
Derby
Bowen (74', 80')
Irvine (11'), Bowler (44'), de Wijs (45'), Elder (63')

Holmes (53')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLeeds UnitedLeeds4629134953065100
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd462881063362790
4Sunderland4621131258441476
5Coventry CityCoventry46209176458669
6Bristol City461717125955468
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn46199185348566
8Millwall461812164749-266
9West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4615191257471064
10Middlesbrough461810186456864
11Swansea CitySwansea461710195156-561
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds461513186069-958
13Norwich CityNorwich461415177168357
14Watford46169215361-857
15Queens Park RangersQPR461414185363-1056
16Portsmouth461412205871-1354
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd461314194965-1653
18Stoke CityStoke461215194562-1751
19Derby CountyDerby461311224856-850
20Preston North EndPreston461020164859-1150
21Hull City461213214454-1049
RLuton TownLuton461310234569-2449
RPlymouth ArgylePlymouth461113225188-3746
RCardiff CityCardiff46917204873-2544


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