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Bologna logo
Serie A | Gameweek 29
Jul 1, 2020 at 6.30pm UK
Renato Dall'Ara
Cagliari logo

Bologna
1 - 1
Cagliari

Barrow (45+3')
Schouten (15'), Tomiyasu (19'), Dijks (64')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Simeone (46')
Carboni (25'), Pellegrini (59')

Preview: Bologna vs. Cagliari - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Serie A encounter between Bologna and Cagliari, including team news and predicted lineups.

Bologna and Cagliari meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Wednesday evening with both clubs having put themselves on the brink of retaining their Serie A status for another 12 months.

After prevailing in their most recent fixtures, the teams sit 10th and 11th place respectively with just 10 matches remaining.


Match preview

Cagliari boss Walter Zenga pictured in April 2018© Reuters

At the beginning of last week, Calgiari would have feared being dragged into a relegation battle if they were unable to end a winless streak which had been extended to 12 matches.

However, two victories in quick succession against SPAL and Torino have effectively ensured that focus can be switched to trying to end the campaign in the top seven.

Although they remain outsiders to achieve that target, Cagliari's resurgence has come as a welcome relief to Walter Zenga, who had to wait over three months to take charge of his first game.

After also showing promise in a narrow defeat at Hellas Verona, Zenga will have confidence that his players can only improve over the coming weeks at a time when they have been provided with a generally favourable schedule.

Giovanni Simeone has been the star of the show since the former Italy goalkeeper's arrival, netting in three successive games to take his tally to the season to nine strikes.

Like the visitors, Bologna returned to winning ways at the weekend after holding on to see off Sampdoria by a 2-1 scoreline.

The result ended a four-game streak without success, although their two most recent fixtures had been showdowns against Lazio and Juventus respectively.

I Rossoblu, now 12 points above the bottom three, can focus their attention on the teams above them as they look to at least equal their 10th position from last season.

However, that will only be achieved if Sinisa Mihajlovic's side can end their wait for a goal before the 70th minute, a run which has now been extended to five matches.

Bologna Serie A form: WLDLLW

Cagliari Serie A form: LLLLWW


Team News

Bologna boss Sinisa Mihajlovic in June 2020.© Reuters

Mihajlovic will almost certainly hand a recall to Musa Barrow, who impressed after his introduction from the substitutes' bench against Sampdoria.

Jerdy Schouten is in line to feature from the start after also making an impact as a replacement.

Zenga is unlikely to make any unnecessary changes to his Cagliari side after such a drastic improvement in form.

Despite being back in contention after a ban, midfielder Luca Cigarini is unlikely to return to the first XI at this time.

Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; Tomiyasu, Danilo, Bani, Dijks; Schouten, Medel, Soriano; Orsolini, Palacio, Barrow

Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Walukiewicz, Ceppitelli, Carboni; Mattiello, Nandez, Rog, Lykogiannis; Nainggolan; Simeone, Pedro


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Bologna 2-2 Cagliari

At a time when both sides will be on a high, there will also be an acknowledgement that they have the freedom to push for all three points without being concerned about a relegation battle. However, this could lead to the teams cancelling each other out in an entertaining tussle.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 45.89%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.


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