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Bolivia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 10, 2021 at 9pm UK
 
Peru national football team

Bolivia
1 - 0
Peru

Vaca (83')
Villarroel (2'), Jusino (24'), Justiniano (74')
Vaca (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Gonzales (42'), Cartagena (76')

Preview: Bolivia vs. Peru - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Bolivia and Peru, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Peru will be looking to keep alive their World Cup 2022 qualifying hopes alive when they travel to Bolivia on Sunday evening.

The White and Red beat Chile 2-0 on Thursday to remain seventh in the 10-team group, while Bolivia fell to a 3-0 loss away to Ecuador and are down in ninth.


Match preview

Peru manager Ricardo Gareca reacts on June 23, 2021© Reuters

Goals either side of half time from Christian Cueva and Sergio Pena earned Peru a much-needed win against Chile, whose own qualifying hopes now appear to be over.

Ricardo Gareca's side have been playing catch up since taking one point from their opening five qualifiers, though they have since accrued 10 from the last 15 available.

That impressive run of form leaves Peru within three points of Colombia in the qualifying playoff spot, meaning a two-legged showdown with a team from another confederation.

There is still a five-point gap to make up on the top four, so chasing down Colombia, whom they still have to face, is now the most realistic target for Gareca's charges.

Bolivia manager Cesar Farias reacts on June 14, 2021© Reuters

As for Bolivia, they are currently in a three-team battle with Venezuela and Chile to avoid finishing bottom of the group.

The Green have lost their last three qualifiers, following up defeats to Uruguay and Argentina last month with a heavy defeat at the hands of Ecuador this week.

Michael Estrada gave Ecuador the lead inside 14 minutes and Enner Valencia, who is now plying his trade for Fenerbahce, added two more before the 20-minute mark.

Only once all campaign have Bolivia picked up a victory, coming against Venezuela last June. Taking all competitions into account, they are now winless in nine outings.

Bolivia have also lost each of their last four meetings with Peru, shipping 11 goals and scoring just three across that period.

Bolivia World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L

Bolivia form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L

Peru World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W

Peru form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Peru's Yoshimar Yotun celebrates scoring a penalty during a penalty shootout on July 2, 2021© Reuters

This is the second of three games in the space of a week for both sides, so changes can therefore be expected to keep things fresh.

Peru were boosted by the return of Pedro Aquino to their squad and indeed their starting lineup against Chile on Thursday, but he may be one of those to make way here.

Jefferson Farfan and Gabriel Costa are among those pushing for recalls to the side.

As for Bolivia, they named a 53-man squad for their October fixtures, but that has since been whittled right down.

Cesar Farias opted to start with Marcelo Moreno against Ecuador and the striker, who leads his nation's scoring charts with 27 goals, impressed without finding the net.

Should the hosts wish to make some alterations, Victor Abrego is a contender to come into the forward line.

Bolivia possible starting lineup:
Lampe; Je. Sagredo, Jusino, Haquin, Quinteros, Jo.Sagredo; R.Vaca, Justiniano, Cespedes; H. Vaca, Moreno

Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Advincula, Ramos, Callens, Trauco; Aquino, Yotun; Cueva, Pena, Flores; Guerrero


SM words green background

We say: Bolivia 0-2 Peru

Peru kickstarted their campaign with victory against Chile in the week and can now make up further ground on the qualifying spots with three more points here.

Bolivia have had another disappointing campaign and have failed to beat Sunday's opponents in nine attempts since 2008, a run in which we can only see being extended here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 39.59%. A win for Bolivia had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Bolivia win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Bolivia vs Peru

Bolivia
13.0%
Draw
7.4%
Peru
79.6%
108
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