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Arsenal logo
Premier League | Gameweek 6
Oct 25, 2020 at 7.15pm UK
Emirates Stadium
Leicester logo

Arsenal
0 - 1
Leicester


Bellerin (30'), Lacazette (57'), Xhaka (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Vardy (80')
Fuchs (32'), Tielemans (41'), Fofana (52'), Maddison (67'), Evans (74')

Preview: Arsenal vs. Leicester City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Arsenal and Leicester City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two top-four hopefuls go head to head on Sunday evening when Arsenal welcome Leicester City to the Emirates Stadium.

Both sides were victorious in the Europa League on Thursday night, but come into this weekend off the back of defeats in their last Premier League matches against Manchester City and Aston Villa respectively.


Match preview

Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang celebrates scoring against Rapid Vienna in the Europa League on October 22, 2020© Reuters

Not since September 1973 have Leicester won at Arsenal - a run of 27 visits to Highbury and the Emirates in all competitions which includes 20 defeats.

Indeed, the Foxes have played more Premier League away games against Arsenal without ever winning than they have against any other opponent in the competition, and they had lost 12 such matches on the bounce before last season's 1-1 draw in the corresponding fixture.

The Gunners will therefore welcome Brendan Rodgers's side to North London with open arms and be confident of quickly returning to winning ways in the Premier League despite sitting below their visitors in the table after five games.

Arsenal's nine-point haul is nothing spectacular at this stage of the campaign, but their only two defeats have come away to Liverpool and Manchester City, so they have got arguably the two toughest games of the season out of the way already.

Mikel Arteta's men will be glad to be back at the Emirates too, having won nine and lost none of their 11 home league matches so far in 2020.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta pictured on September 19, 2020© Reuters

One of the two occasions in which they dropped points in that time did come on Leicester's last visit in July, but the two sides have already faced off once since then with Arsenal knocking the Foxes out of the EFL Cup at the King Power Stadium in September.

Such has been the remarkable nature of this goal-laden Premier League season that Arsenal's distinctly ordinary tally of six goals conceded in five games is actually the second-best defensive record in the division heading into the weekend, but there are more worrying signs at the other end of the pitch.

Only Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion have had fewer shots than the Gunners so far this season, while their two home games have yielded only 13 attempts on goal - although they have won them both.

Leicester, meanwhile, have the best conversion rate in the division with 12 goals from 49 efforts, but they have struggled in Jamie Vardy's absence recently and travel to the Emirates without a goal or a point in the league since their unforgettable 5-2 victory at Manchester City last month.

That triumph appeared to be a statement of intent from Rodgers's side this season, yet back-to-back home defeats to West Ham United and Aston Villa have brought them firmly back down to earth and they could now lose three Premier League games in a row for the first time since February 2019.

Leicester City's James Maddison celebrates scoring against Zorya Luhansk in the Europa League on October 22, 2020© Reuters

It may be that another visit to 'big six' opposition is enough to shake Leicester out of their slump, and both the potential return of Vardy against his favourite opponents and the midweek win over Zorya Luhansk will help with that.

James Maddison, Harvey Barnes and Kelechi Iheanacho were all on the scoresheet as the Foxes got their Europa League campaign off to a winning start in a much more convincing fashion than Arsenal managed on the same evening.

The Gunners needed to come from behind against Rapid Vienna as two goals in four second-half minutes - from David Luiz and the previously misfiring Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - spared Bernd Leno's blushes following an error-strewn performance from the keeper.

Leno is unlikely to get away with that to the same extent against Leicester, particularly if Vardy is back, and despite their recent defeats the visitors do still boast a fine away record this season.

Rodgers's side have won both of their league games on the road, scoring eight goals in the process, having failed to win a single one since New Year's Day before that.

Arsenal Premier League form: WWLWL
Arsenal form (all competitions): WLWWLW

Leicester City Premier League form: WWWLL
Leicester City form (all competitions): WLWLLW



Team News

Arsenal winger Willian pictured on October 21, 2020© Reuters

Arsenal were without both Willian and Dani Ceballos for the midweek win over Rapid Vienna, but neither problem is thought to be serious and the summer arrivals are expected to be available for this match.

Rob Holding is unlikely to feature again until after the international break, though, having pulled out of the Man City lineup after suffering a hamstring injury in the warm-up.

Pablo Mari, Calum Chambers and Gabriel Martinelli also remain sidelined for the Gunners, who are set to welcome a number of first-teamers back into the starting XI after making changes for Thursday's game.

Aubameyang will be amongst them as he bids to end a four-game goalless streak in the top flight; he has not gone five league games without a goal since November 2014, when he was with Borussia Dortmund.

One player who is likely to keep his place from midweek is Thomas Partey, whose performance on his full debut led to immediate comparisons with Patrick Vieira from more than one club legend.

Leicester are optimistic that Vardy will be ready to return, which is bad news for Arsenal; the Golden Boot holder has scored 10 goals in as many Premier League starts against the Gunners - more than he has scored against any other opponent and a tally only Wayne Rooney can beat in Premier League history.

The Foxes will still be without some other key players, though, as Ricardo Pereira, Wilfred Ndidi, Caglar Soyuncu and Daniel Amartey all remain sidelined.

Maddison did manage 65 minutes on Thursday night, scoring in the process, and so he could be ready for his first Premier League start of the season.

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Bellerin, Luiz, Gabriel, Tierney; Ceballos, Thomas, Saka; Willian, Lacazette, Aubameyang

Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Castagne, Fofana, Evans, Justin; Mendy; Perez, Praet, Maddison, Barnes; Vardy


SM words green background

We say: Arsenal 3-1 Leicester City

Vardy's expected return will be a significant boost to Leicester, whose last two league results have been hugely disappointing. However, their record away to Arsenal is dreadful and Arteta's side have shown plenty of cause for optimism so far this season.

Leicester do tend to raise their game against the bigger teams, but we can see Arsenal coming away with all three points from this one.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data


Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 45.81%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 28.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.22%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-0 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Leicester City in this match.


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Leicester City's James Maddison celebrates scoring against Zorya Luhansk in the Europa League on October 22, 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Manchester CityMan City32227376324473
2Arsenal32225575264971
3Liverpool32218372314171
4Aston Villa33196868491963
5Tottenham HotspurSpurs32186865491660
6Newcastle UnitedNewcastle321551269521750
7Manchester UnitedMan Utd32155124748-150
8West Ham UnitedWest Ham33139115258-648
9Chelsea31138106152947
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton321111105250244
11Wolverhampton WanderersWolves32127134651-543
12Fulham33126154951-242
13Bournemouth32119124757-1042
14Crystal Palace3289153754-1733
15Brentford3388174758-1132
16Everton3298153248-1627
17Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest3379174258-1626
18Luton TownLuton3367204670-2425
19Burnley3348213368-3520
20Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd3237223084-5416


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