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Alaves logo
La Liga | Gameweek 33
Jul 1, 2020 at 6.30pm UK
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Granada logo

Alaves
0 - 2
Granada


Duarte (46'), Aguirregabiria (90+1'), Pons (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Antonin (25'), Soldado (49')
Antonin (37'), Soldado (62')

Preview: Alaves vs. Granada - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's La Liga encounter between Alaves and Granada, including team news and predicted lineups.

Alaves play host to Granada on Wednesday evening knowing that three more points may be enough to realistically put themselves out of the reach of the bottom three.

Meanwhile, Granada make the trip to Mendizorrotza sitting just four points off seventh position, a scenario which should see them push for a maximum return against their relegation-threatened opponents.


Match preview

Alaves forward Lucas Perez pictured in December 2019© Reuters

After last season's 10th-placed finish, Granada boss Diego Martinez would have been delighted with his side entering lockdown in contention to earn a spot in next season's Europa League.

Although that still remains the case, Granada now sit in 10th position after failing to win any of their last four games in La Liga.

The fact that three of those fixtures came against opponents below them in the table will only add to Martinez's disappointment, and he must now find a solution ahead of an important trip to another struggling team.

One part of Nazaries' game which has failed in recent outings is their play in the final third, with only one first-half goal coming in five games.

On the positive side, two of Roberto Soldado's four strikes for the season have come since the resumption, suggesting that the former Tottenham Hotspur man could emerge as a key man over the coming weeks.

From Alaves' perspective, they will view this contest as the ideal opportunity to end a losing streak which has now stretched to three games.

To their credit, they gave a respectable account of themselves in a 2-1 defeat at Atletico Madrid on Saturday, managing to keep their in-form opponents at bay for almost an hour.

However, with their last-minute consolation goal coming from the spot, Alaves have now gone three encounters without finding the back of the net from open play.

Despite the understandable negativity at Mendizorrotza, Asier Garitano's team remain nine points clear of the drop zone with just six matches remaining.

Alaves La Liga form: DLWLLL

Granada La Liga form: DWDLDL


Team News

Granada manager Diego Martinez pictured in February 2020© Reuters

After making an immediate impact against Eibar, Soldado will expect to feature in the Granada starting lineup.

As well as replacing Carlos Fernandez, boss Martinez must also decide whether to keep faith with centre-back Jesus Vallejo, who has not always impressed since his January loan arrival.

Former Newcastle United and Stoke City forward Joselu could be recalled to the Alaves attack to replace Scotland international Oliver Burke.

Victor Camarasa may also come back into the team should Garitano opt to freshen up his midfield.

Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Tachi, Ely, Marin; Mendez, Abdallahi, Fejsi, Camarasa, Vidal; Joselu

Granada possible starting lineup:
Escandell; Diaz, Vallejo, Sanchez, Neva; Herrera, Eteki; Puertas, Vico, Machis; Soldado


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Alaves 1-2 Granada

While both clubs have been poor since the resumption, we expect a lively encounter, one which could benefit the home side who are in danger of accepting the safety of mid-table. Although Alaves have home advantage, they are playing with an added pressure on their shoulders which could hinder their performance.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 38.7%. A win for Granada had a probability of 31.83% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.65%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Granada win was 0-1 (11.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.


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Oliver Burke celebrates scoring for Scotland against Cyprus on June 8, 2019
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid32256170224881
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3GironaGirona32215667402768
4Atletico MadridAtletico32194959382161
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13Las PalmasLas Palmas32107153039-937
14AlavesAlaves3298152838-1035
15Rayo Vallecano32713122739-1234
16Celta Vigo32710153747-1031
17Mallorca32613132638-1231
18CadizCadiz32413152245-2325
19Granada3239203361-2818
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